until we get definitive proof otherwise you have to believe that american corporations are in good enough shape they will are you in either one of these camps yet? is it too early to determine? > well it is too early to determine but my long-term experience it never pays to be too pessimistic. if we go lower, can go to 3100 or lower for a hard landing.

charles: so building on that then, goldman sachs comes out, they say if 3600 holds, that is right around here we got a soft landing. so don't expect much in the short term but, this is an opportunity, if you're willing to look out a year or two. > you were asking in the last segment, does the financial plumbing at some point break down? we will get the answers to all of that i think by the end of the year. we need to know where the fed is going to stop, what its effect will be on corporate profits. you buy a little bit during a day like today, and keep the long view but in the short term don't expect much. what else has to be vulnerable or maybe potentially break for a reason for them to at least pause? > well, housing is clearlyīuy a little bit during september. what will they break? one thing we see breaking down is housing, right? as we see mortgage rates go down, housing just turning, home prices turning negative for the first time. everyone keeps saying they will break something. charles: that is one of the main lessons they keep refer towing the mistake that even paul volcker himself made pausing for a moment. > so the next step beyond stopping raising rates may just be keeping rates wherever they ultimately get to for more extended period than what we might have been used to in more recent cycles. i think the message they're trying to impart, once we get there we're going to stay there for a while. Traveling to a destination, people are more focused how long it is going to take to get there and as soon as they get there they will have the freedom to leave. there is a lot of steps in between, say a 75 basis point rate hike and cutting rates. the fed has been really forceful in trying to push back against that notion. to the extent, folks think of a pivot fed going from raising rates aggressively to cutting rates. i just think that really important to define what is meant by pivot. so it's a step in the right direction but, you know, in the intro, the tease to this segment here, charles, you talked about the pivot. ideally without significant damage to the unemployment rate. they have specifically highlighted the desire to get job openings down. the fed has been very vocal saying they want to see more weakness in the labor market. are we getting to the point or can we see the point where the sort of jobs slash wages equation might start to move in a direction the fed willed take notice? > so, no, i think these are steps in the right direction.

Making money charles payne